Antoine Fuqua’s Michael Jackson biopic is off to a record-setting start at the domestic box office, with forecasts placing a debut between $94 million and $100 million and a global haul above $200 million. The Lionsgate release is one of the studio’s biggest openings in years, signaling a rare box-office surge for a music biopic.
The film kicked off with about $38.5 million on its opening day, underscoring strong audience demand across demographics. Early exit polling points to a healthy reception, with Rotten Tomatoes reporting a 96% audience score and PostTrak showing high intent to recommend. Critics’ opinions have been mixed, but the appetite from moviegoers is evident, and roughly 40% of the gross comes from premium formats like Imax.
Jaafar Jackson stars in the title role, and the movie traces Michael’s ascent through the 1980s, ending with the Bad World Tour era. The project’s budget reportedly climbed toward $200 million after additional photography and tweaks, fueling chatter about a possible sequel, though that remains far from guaranteed given the subject matter.
Internationally, Michael launches in 82 markets this weekend (Japan to follow later), leading in 64 of them. Early overseas numbers point to momentum, with robust openings in the U.K. & Ireland ($13.8 million) and France ($10.3 million), plus solid starts in Mexico, Italy and Germany. Brazil posted a standout first day for a Hollywood music biopic in that market as well.
Lionsgate Motion Picture Group Chair Adam Fogelson praised the team behind Michael for tapping into a sense of nostalgia that’s resonating with audiences worldwide and driving the film’s box-office surge.
Japan will join the rollout in June, keeping the global push on track. While critics have highlighted controversies surrounding the artist, fans and general moviegoers have carried the opening, fueling talk of a potential legacy film in the future.
Context and development
The journey to the screen was long, with delays tied to allegations surrounding Jackson. The finished film centers on the artist’s early career, ending before later years, and while a sequel remains a possibility in theory, it’s far from a given.
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